Chin up Steinmeier

It really is an exciting time to be in Germany as everyone is talking about the election and getting ready to vote. A surprisingly dull campaign has hardly lit the world alight, but the last polls taken show that the gap has closed with the CDU/CSU hitting 33% and their desired coalition partner the FDP polling at 14%. This lacks the majority necessary for these two to govern and so it looks increasingly likely that Germany will retain the Grand Coalition that has governed for the last 4 years.

But what about the SPD I hear you ask. Well it's a good question as the same polling data pits them at 25% and their favoured coalition partner, the Greens, at 10%. That's 12% less than the centre right coalition and a loss of 13% from the last election. So what's happened to the party for such dire polling numbers to come out? Why has Walter Steinmeier (German SPD candidate) failed so miserably?

It is unfair to blame Steinmeier for the changed electoral landscape, and I don't think there is any SPD politician that could have won against these odds. The first thing to say is that both of the main parties have been squeezed at this election as voters have turned increasingly to smaller parties. This is not a new thing in Germany for the small parties to take a lot of votes and seats because that is what their proportional representation system is designed to do, but it has rarely been on this scale. If polling data is correct the total vote for the two main parties compared to last election will have fallen from 79.2% of the vote, to roughly 58 % - a drop in support of a whopping 21.2% in just 4 years!!! Reasons for this could include the Grand Coalition or the salience of issues for German voters, but either way this is a hard task for any leader to try and battle against.

Secondly Steinmeier has had to deal with the giant shadows of the two last Chancellors of Germany. His former ally Gerhard Shroder was a massive figure in the party and it would have been difficult for any member for the SPD to try and take over the reins from this giant of German politics. Further Steinmeier has also spent the last 4 years working as number 2 to Angela Merkel and so will always be seen as the junior compared to her in regards to experience and gravitas.

Steinmeier has also faced an impossible electoral landscape as his party has been squeezed from all directions. The coalition with the CDU/CSU has meant that his party cannot attack the record of the last 4 years, while they have also been painted by Merkel as being a hindrance on her ability to run the country properly. This is unfair but leaves the SPD outmanoeuvred politically because now they are forced to try and convince the voters why they would be a good coalition partner for the CDU/CSU when they really should be setting out their own agenda for the Chancellor job. The SPD have also been hit from the other side as well because the rise in support for the Left party has meant that they are losing support and members rapidly, yet to try and respond to the demands of the more leftist members of their own party would be disastrous for their image of being the right partner for the CDU/CSU. Schoders Agenda 2010 really alienated those on the left of the SPD and it would take a real effort to woo these supporters back.

Finally Steinmeier and the SPD started the campaign losing quite heavily and really needed an exciting campaign with divisive issues to really shake things up. However this has been one of the dullest campaigns in recent time as voters seem to want to keep the status quo in the time of economic troubles, and so Steinmeier has been unable to gain any momentum.

Therefore I don't think its fair to blame Steinmeier for the massive loss in support that is being predicted by latest polls. Both candidates should be congratulated on fighting strong campaigns, but only time will tell whether Merkel has won enough votes to break away from the SPD. Steinmeier on the other hand will be hoping to land a seat as the number 2 in a Merkel led coalition Government which is long way away from only 7 years ago when the SPD were the biggest party and setting the agenda. But that's politics for you and I predict there will be much more to come tonight!